Global Vision

"The road to success is always under construction; it's a never-ending progress, not a target to be reached"

Copyright

The texts, texts' fragments and images presented on this blog are copyrighted to their authors and protected by European and International laws starting from the publishing date. The texts, fragments of texts, and images may not be reproduced without prior written agreement from the authors. Failure to obtain the approval for reproducing the texts, fragments of texts and images is punishable under the law of the European Community and international treaties.

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

This is the 3rd world war

Yes, I know, apparently the current economic crisis (just to use an euphemism) has nothing to do with this blog, but who can ignore its impacts now? The panic is spreading and melting with the entire economy, once left the golden financial world. And now what? what should we expect, why there is such a collapse in such a short time frame?
Well, as I like challenges, I recently specialized myself also on trading, following some courses by Forbes, even because my consultancy role and my professional attitude push me to excellence and trying to master all the possible industrial or economic fields that CRM and associated Business Analysis can involve.
This was last summer, when the economy was not in any case at its best and we all waited for a raising; even if the market was very nervous, I succeeded in making good investments and good suggestions for friends and clients.
Then, suddenly, an unimaginable collapse, and all theories and studies have become just a theory for kids. My belief? That all this has been planned and forecasted by few entities that will take a new control back to their hands.
Unfortunately masses usually follow the wind imposed by few, and lots of people have lost most of their savings. Nothing new really, as the common understanding of things is not so critical, but follow, for example, the mood established by the newspapers, almost all of which are controlled.
Do you really believe that the entire economy is going to collapse? I firmly believe that U.S. know what is doing, more than we expect and for sure more than Europe has understood. This is a contemporary global war, where old assets and columns are going to change; at some extents, this was also necessary.
Everyone has already forgotten what Russia did in Georgia and how the climate was returning to a cold war one kind? Now what has been demonstrated? that this kind of approach is old-fashioned and that their power show was not only despicable, as the common opinion already stated, but above all not useful at all (not intelligent?). Look where Russia is now: it's financial structure is collapsing more than other countries and they hope themselves that U.S. will defeat this crisis. Where are the tanks now?
Other important reference point are moving and new strategies coming with them, and it's not important if many people completely burn their savings, because things have to change for someone.
First of all in one month time U.S. will face a new election. While just a couple of weeks ago McCain and Obama were incredibly at the same popularity level (what? Who talked about McCain before? Wasn’t it just the Obama election?), now Obama has again more points versus his competitor. Personally I am not taking any part in this, above all because the only certain thing is that, despite recent comments by intellectual people, the most important and influent country are and will be the United States of America. And whoever smiling face you put on it, the real powerful institutions behind it are more or less the same… included their goals.
U.S. are showing the world that, if they go down, they will bring all the world with them, included great new emerging economies that seemed to preoccupy and revolutionize the entire world asset.
I understand the fact that many investors from China, Russia and Middle East are investing in US bonds, but this does not mean that these countries will take the control, but on the contrary that U.S. needs new friends across their boarders, and the result will be on the contrary an expansion of U.S. commerce and way of thinking around the globe.. without any military war. In this picture, for sure great U.S. speculators are not useful to anyone anymore, even to U.S. itself, so they have basically been "fired".
The funny thing is that, as in a war, the alliances emerge, together with the will or not to collaborate together. The result is that Europe has shown its pure abstraction, with each country acting separately and with personal local interests.
And please, let's not define the different coordinated rate cuts as an harmonious action of European States. First of all because also other countries such as Japan etc. have shown their support on the same direction, second because the consequences on European different markets is visible to everyone: DAX, CAC, MIB - all markets have closed today negative with more than 6% loss.
Who is going to benefit from this, together with the Paulson plan? Yes, you know it, and let's wait this evening for Wally... for the moment it is losing much less than Europe and Japan and let's see how it will close. I would not be surprised to see some + (really? How can it be??), except going down to the end, trying to make us europeans go down the day after.
Do you want other confirmations? The value of U.S. dollar has increased versus the euro after a long time where the American dollar was losing steps every week in an uncontrolled way. Maybe it's just a coincidence that soon the amero will see its birth?
This morning Toyota, big Japanese automotive competitor for U.S. companies, has been declassed by Nikko Citi, an American Bank, indicating the target price from 6.340 to 3.520 yen...
Do we have to talk then about the oil price? Did you think that the answer about global warming would have been immediate change of direction, both from Republicans or Democratics? The main concern for U.S. has always been the dependency from foreign oil. Now, with the incredible price fall, U.S. is also saying to the international foreign oil powers: "hey, if we go down, you can burn your oil just for your fun, man. So let's talk differently in the future, ok?"
What will save us really? Apart from the correct re-dimension of the money cost (for many this is becoming unbearable) the answer is just one: Quality.
And here we arrive at the point I was targeting for our usual scope: the current situation is surely preoccupying, but I believe as well it is somehow the beginning of a new phase. I believe the entire CRM sector will be affected by this crisis too and I think it will be somehow justified, as too many wastes have involved CRM Projects implementations. There is too much speculation around this business, the recruitment part just to start mentioning some. The quality level of the consultancy as well is absolutely not at the level that is requested by the market, not only on the freelance market, but also on the Big consultancy names. What I am working on is based on Quality, included the management of the LinkedIn group CRM Project Managers: as this crisis is doing, we have to extirpate once forever the weeds from our glorious CRM field, if we want to progress, maintain a high credibility and come to the market in a productive way, with good implemented ideas and not the usual old services.
In this sense the idea of an open community can help CRM: but in a controlled and severe way, as it will have to be for the new trading rules.
Together with some partners I am also working on a new tool and a new methodology that will be presented to the public soon to the CRM community. Many of you already contacted me to ask for the new Crm-Up methodology and the new tool: I am sorry for the delay, but I am working in order to make it real and available for the end of this year, crisis permitting :). With this tool and methodology we are aiming at stopping all the wastes around the CRM implementations projects as well as poor consultancy without any added value.

Ah, If you want to invest money? well, if you still have some but you want to be sure, just wait for the new president election. If you want to risk in these days, doing some speculation, then it's quite easy: on the European market buy good titles (with good news) around 11-12 AM and sell at 14AM. If you are in the U.S., then buy in the middle of the day and sell before the end. Now it’s almost 6:00PM CET and DJ is down of 2 points.. let’s see the closure, I am curious...
In the next days, in any case, it will be better.
Are you looking for patterns? ;)